From the sunset of Ctesiphon to the sunrise of Tehran: Socio-political consequences of arid climate events in Iran

rom the sunset of Ctesiphon to the sunrise of Tehran:
Socio-political consequences of arid climatic events
Abstract
1) Introduction
A history of cultural adaptation to climate change can help us understand the dynamic interactions between climate and society and develop the potential for adaptation. Throughout history, climate and environmental changes have always been a powerful stimulus for many social movements to adapt and survive. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between major socio-political tensions and arid climatic events and to discuss the effects of climate on humans during the Islamic era. The main question is about the possible connection between important historical events and climatic changes. According to paleoclimate research, from the mid-first millennium to the mid-nineteenth century AD, two long periods of depletion of solar energy occurred, leading to cooling events. The first period is called the Early Medieval Cooling (EMC)/the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA), and the second period is known as the Little Ice Age (LIA). Between these two events, the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) occurred. These climate changes, with the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts, have affected the socio-political balance and order of societies and have led to consequences such as famine, migration, epidemics, and increasing violence.
2) Methods and materials
To reconstruct the climate of the last 1500 years, the results of a number of high-resolution paleoclimate studies in the Near East and Central Asia are presented. In the following, according to the time of occurrence of dry events, the most important socio-political events of Iran from the decline and collapse of the Sassanid Empire to the beginning of the Qajar dynasty are examined.
3) Results
The results of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) In the Islamic era, climatic conditions tended mainly towards cooling; (2) Cold spells have been mainly associated with reduced precipitation, especially in continental regions and arid environments of the northern latitudes; (3) Frequent droughts and famines resulting from cold spells have reduced resilience and increased the vulnerability of the affected communities; (4) Cold-dry periods have been linked to the spread of deadly epidemics such as cholera and plague due to famine, shortage of drinking water, malnutrition and reduced body resistance to diseases; (5) Violence and war have increased in cold-dry periods; (6) Consecutive wars, looting, killings, and destruction have reduced populations in some areas and unwanted migrations due to insecurity; (7) Socio-political effects of climatic events can exist for centuries and even forever.
4) Conclusion
Understanding the long-standing link between humans and climates can help us predict and prevent possible future events during the current global warming. Climate change affects the social behavior and internal mechanisms of societies and causes a series of events that in many cases cannot be avoided. Therefore, in order to study the effects of climatic events, one should not focus only on the frequency and severity of atmospheric hazards, but in principle, ​it is important to pay attention to the long-term consequences of these events on the subsistence patterns and socio-political system of human societies. Prolonged and erosive periods of drought gradually reduce the resilience and stability of communities and make them vulnerable to unforeseen events. They can also lead to an increase in illness and physical disability and aggravation of mental disorders such as depression, anxiety, and violence by creating poverty, famine, and malnutrition.
Paleoclimate research shows that solar energy has generally declined over the past 1500 years. Even during the Medieval Warm period, cold spells occurred frequently. Cooling climate change in the Near East, especially in Central Asia, has been associated with declining humidity. The continental climate of Central Asia and the strengthening of Siberian anticyclones during cold periods have resulted in severe droughts for pastoral-nomad tribes in the region. Repeated migration or brutal invasions to plunder from this vast region to the southern latitudes, especially Iran, in cold and dry periods, indicates the socio-political effects of climatic events. However, this behavior has actually been a kind of adaptation to climate change for survival. The results show that one of the most important historical challenges of Iran has been the frequent invasion of pastoral-nomad tribes of Central Asia in cold and dry periods. About a thousand years ago, a group of Turks from this region was able to dominate the political affairs of Iran by forming a Seljuk dynasty, but these attacks continued until the eighteenth century. In all these tense periods of climate change, none of the Iranian states have not only been able to adopt effective adaptation mechanisms to manage and improve the situation but making wrong decisions in critical conditions, has led to their downfall, and also caused the killing and looting of defenseless people by foreigners.
Funding: There is no funding support.
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